SPEECH BY YAW SHIN LEONG, AT THE INSTITUTE FOR CULTURAL DIPLOMACY’S BERLIN,INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE “THE GROWING PROMINENCE OF CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE: EXPLORING THE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND CULTURAL RELATIONS OF CHINA AND GLOBAL STAKEHOLDERS” ON 15TH SEPTEMBER 2011, AT 10.45AMDistinguished Guests,
Ladies & Gentlemen
Introduction1) A very good morning to all of you. It gives me great pleasure to be here today at ‘The Sino-Global Discourse’ organized by the Institute for Cultural Diplomacy. My name is Yaw Shin Leong and I am from the Republic of Singapore. Singapore is a highly globalized city-state. Historically we share certain social, cultural and family connections with China. We host a large number of people from China who work in Singapore and large numbers of Singaporean businesses operate in China. Singapore is integrated in the open world economic system. Major trading partners and sources of investment come from all parts of the world, including Europe and North America. Strategically, this means that Singapore may have a feel for the complexities of having to work simultaneously with China, the US, Europe, our immediate neighbors and the wider world - including when the behavior of various actors may not be in full alignment. Being small, Singapore is particularly attuned to such dynamics.
Growing Prominence of China on The World Stage2) Looking toward China and the world, it is evident that there are issues where spillover effects can be quite significant both in Asia and beyond. Examples include, the differences over the South China Sea, the Chinese Renminbi exchange rate, and issues surrounding US debt. The lack of clarity on these issues cast a shadow over both security and prosperity. Global economic growth clearly requires that the US get its economic house in order, but having a China that can provide capital through its pressured finance system as well as a market for goods may be no less important. Of course, we have to bear in mind concerns over Chinese local governments’ debt situations , as this will have adverse affect on its banking system.
3) At the same time, any potential instability in the South China Sea - a body of water that sees half of annual global commerce - can disrupt trade in both Southeast and Northeast Asia. If nothing else, the increased risks to communication and transport in the South China Sea had made shipping and air transport more expensive for business. It can also undermine energy security since the major Northeast Asian economies are net energy importers - and much of their energy needs have to cross the South China Sea. All this could have negative effects on the world economy. So, even for non-claimant states to the South China Sea, such as Singapore, peaceful, stable management of differences may be highly important. This is an insight that may be applicable to other areas where views diverge between China and others.
4) What may be key to managing challenges in a world where China is increasingly prominent may be an appreciation that all actors may have to work consciously and actively on coordination and mutual accommodation, even though this process can at times be trying. It may be the case that no power can go into it alone in Asia and perhaps the world. A rising China cannot full address major regional and global economic shocks on its own, and even if these issues may not originate from Asia, a slowdown in world economic growth affects everyone - not just in their pocketbooks, but politically and socially as well. China also may yet to possess the capacity or trust among its neighbors - being a claimant to several territorial disputes - for it to underwrite political stability and maritime security on a regional, much less global scale. After all, the US became the world's largest economy around 1870, but only became the world's leading state in 1945, and that was after two world wars had devastated other major centers of power.
Political, Economic & Cultural Relations Of China & Global StakeholdersPolitical Relations of China & Global Stakeholders5) Maintaining a rapid pace of economic development has traditionally been seen as a political imperative in China. However, a series of accidents and safety scandals have seen the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP), warning against a dash for "GDP that comes with blood" at the expense of human life. The caution came in the wake of a fatal collision in July involving two high-speed trains near the city of Wenzhou, in Zhejiang province. Some 40 people were killed in the incident, and nearly 200 others were injured. The roll out of high-speed rail had been trumpeted as a sign of China’s growing economic strength and prowess in high-technology spheres. Just before the crash, a government spokesman had rejected claims that China's high-speed trains were based on stolen Japanese technology, claiming that they were home grown and superior to Japan's models. The disaster was thus a huge embarrassment. This was compounded by the Ministry of Railways' handling of the aftermath, which saw parts of the wreckage buried, rather than being sent for examination for the crash's cause. The discovery of a survivor after the ministry’s claim that rescue work had ended, added further salt to the injury. The local media was quick to critique the government’s management of the incident. A reporter for China Central Television (CCTV), the main national TV network, gave an impassioned critique of rail safety and called for slower growth.
6) If the above incident could be an indication, China, despite it’s advances in technology and it’s status as the world’s second largest economy, may still find itself lacking to fully undertake the responsibilities of managing the world system and its region on its own. In this sense, the unique capacities that the United States, Europe, and others bring remain key, and it is important that leaders in these capitals continue their active presence in the Asia-Pacific and the world. It may be difficult to do so in the face of domestic political and economic pressure, but insufficient engagement may intensify these challenges over time. Working to further improve cooperation may not always be easy, but it may be the most practical way ahead.
7) Given the close integration of the world economy, actions by any party can have severe consequences not just for others but itself too. In this sense, all countries, including China, have little incentive to provoke others. What may be key is cooperative management of challenges such as the world economy and disputes to make sure that these issues remain under control. This may be especially important to do given the potential rise of more assertive forms of nationalism in China and elsewhere. Strong expressions of national pride may make compromise difficult, even on matters that may otherwise be quite reasonable. Containing such sentiments may be especially difficult during periods of leadership transition and when leaders feel less confident. This may be something to watch since both the US and China are moving into periods of leadership change over the next year or two.
8) Being a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China is actively involved in handling regional issues, such as the nuclear situation in North Korea and in the anti-piracy task force off the coast of Africa. China is an active participant in many past and present UN peacekeeping missions , including Timor Leste, Haiti and the Middle East etc.
Economic Relations of China & Global Stakeholders9) China is currently the world's second largest economy, even though the distribution of income remains very unequal given that it has the world's largest population. China is also a major investor, especially in the developing world, which also gives it significant political influence in these areas. Countries with substantial Chinese economic and political influence cover Africa, Latin America, the South Pacific, and Southeast Asia. Some countries have moved to use RMB rather than USD denominated transactions, especially in Asia. China is a major producer of greenhouse gases and consumer of fossil fuels in the world . Given the one-child policy and its social development, China may be facing a major demographic problem with a very rapidly ageing population over the next 20-30 years. This could put a damper on its economic development.
10) Controlling inflation will remain China's top priority even as the world economy wobbles, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao signaled in comments published recently. Although imported inflation is expected to remain elevated, he said the global recovery remained fragile and that sovereign debt problems in the United States and Europe would put a "drag" on world economic growth in the future. Noting that an economic slowdown in China is expected and even desirable, he said inflation remained unacceptably high. Mr Wen made the comments in an article in Qiu shi (求实), or Seeking Truth, a key journal published by the ruling Communist Party.
11) On the other hand, China's millionaires may account for about half of the rich people across 10 major economies in Asia and hold more than half of the wealth by 2015, according to a study by Julius Baer Group and CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. The millionaires will more than double in number to 2.8 million, with 1.4 million high networth people in China, according to the report that covered China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, the Philippines and Malaysia. Mainland Chinese millionaires will hold US$8.76 trillion (S$10.55 trillion) of the US$15.81 trillion that these countries' rich are expected to have.
Cultural Relations of China & Global Stakeholders12) On the cultural front, it is also important to understand that China is highly diverse and complex. There is great regional and linguistic variation – For instance, Han Chinese in Northern China may barely understand the daily speech of people in Southern China. There are also significant differences across administrative bureaucracies, which can sometimes manifest itself in difficulties in coordination or even seeming administrative ambivalence. Sometimes, there may be official pressure to conform to certain modes of behavior that may be difficult to go along with. Some point to the protection of sensitive technology and extra-contractual elements that may make for complicated business relationships. Of course, all this comes with the great economic and other opportunities that China offers.
13) Indeed, Singaporeans learnt many of these lessons the hard way through experience. One exercise to quote is the joint venture for the development of the Suzhou Industrial Park project. Perhaps it is not that these issues are insurmountable. In this regard more care to specific conditions - and how they change over time and space - may prove more helpful than looking at China as a whole. This can help inform decisions on the social as well as political costs and benefits of doing business in China, as well as potential ways to get around obstacles in ways that allow continued autonomy of action.
14) China is actively pushing public diplomacy through the establishment of its Confucius Institutes and Confucius Classrooms around the world. Reportedly, there are more than 300 Confucius Institutes and 300 Confucius Classrooms around the world, including one in Singapore, hosted by Nanyang Technological University. The Confucius Institutes come under the Hanban or Office of the Chinese Language Council, under the PRC Ministry of Education. There are more than 40 million students studying Mandarin around the world as well as more than 260,000 foreign students studying in China. China is culturally diverse with more than 56 officially recognized minority groups and many smaller ones. Even within the largest Han ethnic group, there is significant difference, including over spoken languages.
Four Key Issues Involving China & Global Stakeholders I
) Obstacles to Continued Economic Prosperity15) China is clearly on the rise and offers many economic opportunities and is a key driver of the world economy. Continued Chinese prosperity is key to the world economy especially at times when Europe and North American face economic pressures. However, China's economic growth is not without its downside risks. These include inadequate legal protections and welfare provisions for lower income groups, particularly in inadequate healthcare, denial of pay, poor working conditions, land grabs etc. There is also substantial income inequality. Minorities also sometimes can feel discriminated against. China also has severe environmental problems ranging from pollution to the severe reduction of water sources. As mentioned earlier, China faces a serious ageing problem in the medium term. These issues could hamper China's continued economic growth. They could even potentially develop into social unrest, which may negatively affect China's economic development and/or potentially drive greater nationalism in China as groups try to lay channel such unrest for their own aims.
II)
Durability & Adaptability of Social-Political Institutions 16) China's political and social institutions are strong and helped it overcome unrest in the past, but questions about their durability and adaptability remain. According to a Tsinghua University sociology professor, Sun Li Ping, there were more than 180,000 mass protests in China last year . This reflects that at least a significant minority of people feel that the current system is unable to fully address their grievances. Among these problems include corruption, which could erode social stability and negatively affect the business climate. The relative lack of transparency in Chinese institutions can make dealing with Chinese officialdom and companies difficult. It can also foster suspicion of Chinese intentions among China's neighbors - perhaps even unnecessarily. Moreover, a seeming lack of coordination in China's bureaucracy may complicate relations with China and efforts to seek cooperation. Indeed, a number of scholars claim that the South China Sea tensions over the past few years are a consequence of a lack of bureaucratic coordination and even bureaucratic turf wars in China. China's diversity compounds these issues.
III)
Environmental Concerns & Neighborliness 17) China's rapid economic growth and the benefits it offers to stakeholders may have wider economic externalities that may be worth deeper consideration. The pollution problems associated with China's economic development have almost as much to do with domestic Chinese consumption as producing for foreign firms and the world market. Pollution from China also those beyond its borders, an example being the flow of air particulates from China to Korea and Japan. China's extensive water and energy demands also relate to the development of its globally integrated economy. This has also led to the damming of rivers to the potential detriment of countries downstream - examples include India , Thailand , Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam .
IV)
Fostering Transparency & Diffusing Tensions18) It may be important to continually engage China to reinforce the understanding that other global actors do not wish China ill, but hope that China will remain open to discussion and even compromise on difficult issues. Given concerns about potential domestic unrest and possibly the rise of nationalism, there could be influential forces in China that see external actors as likely to be threatening. It is important to allay these concerns while at the same time spelling out the need to work with China peaceably on areas of difference. In this regard, encouraging greater transparency in China could go a long way in preventing tensions from rising and diffusing them when they do. Global stakeholders in China can also encourage greater coordination among different bodies responsible for a particular issue. It may be helpful to understand that working with China is a long-term process of engagement that may not always be smooth. There may be times when a strong stance may be necessary, as well others when walking away from an issue for a time can be crucial. These may be just as important as accommodation and compromise. Deciding when which approach might be most effective requires not only general expertise about China, but in-depth knowledge of the issues at hand.
Conclusion19) China is clearly a central actor in the world whose importance is likely to increase going forward. However its development is not without significant risks for all stakeholders. As such it is important for all global stakeholders to soar with the dragon and work jointly in dealing with the risks China face, just as it is important for China to work with others to address challenges that face its neighbors and the world. In the light of the above, it is crucial for China and all stakeholders to recognize that addressing challenges can be difficult, but this does not always mean avoiding contentious issues. Transparency and being forthright is a key part of dealing effectively with the multiple challenges that face China and the world. Also friction is a natural part of dealing with difficult issues and differences with China - just as it is with other actors - even though provocation is in no one's interest, including China's. The reasoning underlying the above set of ideas aims to encourage China to take on an active, cooperative international role that can benefit all stakeholders. However, these ideas are also mindful of the domestic risks China faces, the rise of potentially disruptive nationalism, and its recent assertiveness, which some stakeholders see as unnecessarily provocative. They hope to encourage China to work with various stakeholders, as many of these issues need to be addressed cooperatively.
20) Thank you.
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This evening both Shin Leong & Mr. Johnny Ang, President of ‘Goodwill Services’, a Voluntary Welfare Organization (VWO, Community Services) (ROS 2133/2008) went to Sim Lim Square to purchase their first 3 sets of CCTV for ‘Project Nomad Eye’ (PNE). 
Shin Leong held informal discussions with Ms. Emily Lau who is the Legislative Councillor & Vice-Chairman of Hong Kong’s Democratic Party last evening. Joining the informal discussions were fellow WP Central Executive Council members Dr John Yam & Ms. Frieda Chan.
In another meet up with a group of canine activists on 2nd September 2011, more ideas were generated amongst canine activists. The additional ideas were added to the original ‘Community Dogs Management Programme’ (draft I) paper.
Hougang residents celebrated Hari Raya with their MP Yaw Shin Leong last Saturday night. Dressed to the occasion in Malay traditional costume, Baju Melayu complete with samping and songkok, Mr Yaw gave a brief speech in Bahasa Melayu, welcoming the Malay residents to celebrate the special occasion.
SPEECH BY YAW SHIN LEONG, AT THE INSTITUTE FOR CULTURAL DIPLOMACY’S BERLIN,INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE “THE GROWING PROMINENCE OF CHINA ON THE WORLD STAGE: EXPLORING THE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND CULTURAL RELATIONS OF CHINA AND GLOBAL STAKEHOLDERS” ON 15TH SEPTEMBER 2011, AT 10.45AM
Hougang residents celebrated their first Lantern festival with their MP Yaw Shin Leong last night. More than 550 Hougang residents turned up for the celebration in anticipation of the exciting games, performances, and the lucky draw prizes. More importantly, it was a time to gather with their family, neighbours and their new MP for a time of tea, mooncake and fellowship on this mid autumn festival. 
Following my lunch with HIV ex-inmate (Mr. E), a week+ later, I met up over coffee with Mr. Shawn Lee, an advisory group member with the Global Network Of People Living with HIV (GNP+). 
Yesterday Dr. Michael Barr sent me an email with the attached photo. Dr. Barr asked if that was a photo of a younger me (10 years ago) with the late Uncle Joshua Benjamin Jeyaratnam (JBJ). Dr Barr shared that he just found it amongst his collections. 
Below is an impassionate email from Ms Z, a Hougang constituent regarding her concerns that housing loans are no longer affordable for young Singaporeans like herself. This is indeed an important issue of grave concerns for younger Singaporeans. With Ms Z's permission, I am reproducing the full contents of her email for our reading. Do kindly share your thoughts, if you share similar concerns or have any suggestion(s) to offer. Thank you.